The emergence of HIV transmitted resistance in Botswana: "when will the WHO detection threshold be exceeded?".
|Title||The emergence of HIV transmitted resistance in Botswana: "when will the WHO detection threshold be exceeded?".|
|Publication Type||Journal Article|
|Year of Publication||2007|
|Authors||Vardavas, R, Blower S|
|Keywords||Anti-HIV Agents, Botswana, Drug Resistance, Viral, HIV Infections, HIV-1, Humans, Mathematics, Models, Theoretical, National Health Programs, Population Surveillance, Program Development, Program Evaluation, World Health Organization|
The Botswana antiretroviral program began in 2002 and currently treats 42,000 patients, with a goal of treating 85,000 by 2009. The World Health Organization (WHO) has begun to implement a surveillance system for detecting transmitted resistance that exceeds a threshold of 5%. However, the WHO has not determined when this threshold will be reached. Here we model the Botswana government's treatment plan and predict, to 2009, the likely stochastic evolution of transmitted resistance.
|Alternate Journal||PLoS ONE|