The emergence of HIV transmitted resistance in Botswana: "when will the WHO detection threshold be exceeded?".

TitleThe emergence of HIV transmitted resistance in Botswana: "when will the WHO detection threshold be exceeded?".
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2007
AuthorsVardavas, R, Blower S
JournalPloS one
Volume2
Issue1
Paginatione152
Date Published2007
ISSN1932-6203
KeywordsAnti-HIV Agents, Botswana, Drug Resistance, Viral, HIV Infections, HIV-1, Humans, Mathematics, Models, Theoretical, National Health Programs, Population Surveillance, Program Development, Program Evaluation, World Health Organization
Abstract

The Botswana antiretroviral program began in 2002 and currently treats 42,000 patients, with a goal of treating 85,000 by 2009. The World Health Organization (WHO) has begun to implement a surveillance system for detecting transmitted resistance that exceeds a threshold of 5%. However, the WHO has not determined when this threshold will be reached. Here we model the Botswana government's treatment plan and predict, to 2009, the likely stochastic evolution of transmitted resistance.

Alternate JournalPLoS ONE