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Uncertainty
and Sensitivity Analysis (Methodology)
We
have been the first to use sophisticated time-dependent uncertainty
and sensitivity methodology, based upon Latin Hypercube Sampling, to
analyze deterministic epidemic control models.
Over the past 14 years we have applied these techniques to different
models in order to answer a variety of research questions.
Technique
Paper:
- S.M. Blower and
H. Dowlatabadi. 1994. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex
models of disease transmission: an HIV model, as an example. International
Statistical Review 2: 229-243. [Full
Text]
Applications:
-
D.P.
Wilson, P.M. Coplan, M.A. Wainberg, and S.M. Blower. 2008. The
paradoxical effects of using antiretroviral-based microbicides
to control HIV epidemics. PNAS 105(28): 9835-40.
[Full Text][Supplemental Material].
-
E. Kajita, J.T. Okano,
E.N. Bodine, S.P. Layne and S.M. Blower. 2007. Modelling an outbreak of an emerging pathogen.
Nature Reviews Microbiology 5(9):700-9.
[Full Text]
-
D.P.
Wilson, J.O. Kahn and S.M. Blower. 2006. Predicting the epidemiological
impact of antiretroviral allocation strategies in KwaZulu-Natal:
The effect of the urban-rural divide. PNAS 103(38):14228-14233.
Epub 2006 Sep 12. [Full Text]
[Supplemental Information].
Science Magazine's Editor's Choice Article in the field of Biomedicine
[Link].
-
S.M.
Blower, E.N. Bodine, K. Grovit-Ferbas. 2005. Predicting the potential
public health impact of disease-modifying HIV vaccines in South
Africa: the problem of clades. Current Drug Targets - Infectious
Disorders 5(2): 179-192[Full
Text]
-
E.J.
Schwartz and S.M. Blower. 2005. Predicting the potential individual
level and population level impact of HSV-2 vaccines. Journal
of Infectious Diseases 191(10): 1734-1746. [Full
Text]
-
R.J.
Smith, E.N. Bodine, D.P. Wilson, S.M. Blower. 2005. Evaluating the
potential impact of vaginal microbicides to reduce the risk of HIV
acquisition in female sex workers. AIDS 19(4): 413-421. [Full
Text]
-
S.M.
Blower, E.N. Bodine, J.O. Kahn, W. McFarland. 2005. The antiretroviral
rollout & drug resistant HIV in Africa: insights from empirical
data & theoretical models. AIDS 19(1): 1-14. [Full
Text].
-
S.M. Blower and
Li Ma. 2004. Calculating the contribution of HSV-2 epidemics to
increasing HIV incidence rates: treatment implications. Clinical
Infectious Diseases 39(Suppl 5): S240-S247. [Full
Text]
-
S.M. Blower. 2004. Modelling the
genital herpes epidemic. Herpes 11 Suppl 3: 138A-146A. [Full Text]
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S.M. Blower, A.
Wald, H. Gershengorn, F. Wang, L. Corey. 2004. Targeting virological
core groups: a new paradigm for controlling HSV-2 epidemics. Journal
of Infectious Diseases 190. [Full
Text]
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S.M.
Blower and T. Chou. 2004. Modeling the emergence of the 'hot zones':
tuberculosis and the amplification dynamics of drug resistance.
Nature Medicine 10(10). [Full
Text] [Supplemental
Information].
Science Magazine's Editor's Choice Article in the field of Medicine.
[Link].
-
E.
Ziv, C.L. Daley, S. Blower. 2004. Potential public health impact
of new tuberculosis vaccines. Emerging Infectious Diseases
10(9): 1529-1535. [Full Text]
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S.M. Blower, L. Ma, P. Farmer,
and S. Koenig. 2003. Predicting the impact of antiretrovirals in
resource poor settings: preventing HIV infections whilst controlling
drug resistance. Current Drug Targets - Infectious Disorders
3: 345-353. [Full Text]
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S.M. Blower S, K.
Koelle, D.E. Kirschner and J. Mills. 2001. Live attenuated HIV vaccines:
predicting the trade-off between efficacy and safety. Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences 98 (6): 3618-3623. [Full
Text] [Simulation]
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